So the white house is able to show estimations showing an actual GDP growth in the first quarter of 2008. If true this is very surprising to many. Me too. I really hope the estimates are rigt and that the US economy isn't heading for a giant slump as have been argued numerous times by numerous people.
A side remark: This reminds me of the (hypothetical) fact, that if you place a lot of monkeys in front of a lot of typewriters and give them a lot of time. Then one of them will produces a critically aclaimed novel eventually. Or the collective works of Shakespeare. It's only a matter of time.This applies to economists too. If you place enough economists in enough medias one of them will eventually be able to predict the future. And by "predict" I mean guessing right... Not exactly the same thing, but not completely off either.
Anyways, Jeff Frankel argues why these positive numbers shouldn't be taken too seriously. And further more, if they are right, why the US is still likely to end up in a recession very soon.
I pretty much agree with Jeff Frankel on this. But I do not think the recession will be nearly as severe as noumerous economists have predicted.